Tesla's CRAZY Promises - TalkLinked #1
TechLinked
·TechLinked
·2019-05-06
·
2,045 words · ~10 min read
0:10
tesla released they didn't release it they announced it tesla announced their
0:15
own full self-driving chip
0:18
don't look at me that's pretty good
0:22
so tesla had this thing called the autonomy investor day and the main thing
0:26
was the full self-driving chip aka fsd
0:30
all right this is their own chip this is their own chip originally they or they
0:34
have been using NVIDIA for their self-driving chips as you know not
0:37
anymore not anymore later see you later NVIDIA so the fsd chip according to elon
0:42
musk it's the best chip in the world objectively trillions of operations it's
0:48
just if you are if you are an objective you know that it's the best okay so this
0:52
chip is going to be in all new teslas going forward you can drop it into old
0:57
tesla's as an upgrade because i saw that you would have to pay for the upgrade
1:01
it's unknown there are tweets from elon saying everyone's going to get the
1:05
upgrade and as we've seen tweets from elon
1:08
could mean anything in real life so so this new chip the new chip hardware
1:13
level three what is that gonna let people do what it'll let you do james is
1:17
have full self driving so they've had an option on their site right now to order
1:21
cards that say full self driving they had that for
1:25
but this is a different full self driving okay this time it's real you got
1:29
full self driving then you got fuller self driving okay overflowing yeah
1:33
what it sounds like is that the fsd chip will give you the ability to have level
1:38
five autonomy by by mid 2020 by mid 2020
1:42
yeah tesla drivers will have level 5 autonomy with no geo fencing which
1:47
presumably means that the car can just drive
1:51
without really needing to have gps or maps it just will sense things from a
1:56
technical perspective it'll have no geo fencing from a regulatory perspective it
2:01
could i doubt very much that by mid 2020
2:04
you'll be able to drive this thing in self-driving mode anywhere in the us hey
2:08
wherever you want to go don't doubt okay he makes these awesome claims that
2:11
make you excited but my guess would be if it hits 2020 at all it would be the
2:15
end of 2020 in december you'll be able to be in nevada and nevada alone because
2:20
they're
2:23
and then as soon as you cross the border you got to be driving it uh james you
2:26
know that we get in trouble from tesla uh fans they think we're tesla haters i
2:31
love tesla it doesn't doesn't sound like it to me
2:36
well i did sell my stock
2:41
so like let's talk a little bit more about this chip okay so we know what we're talking about so
2:46
uh it's built by samsung in in texas so not in korea keeping it
2:50
local very cool and the pcb the the actual
2:54
board itself contains two duplicate systems okay everything's bigger in
2:59
texas um so that means that if errors or
3:02
damage on one chip is detected the other one can uh take over and you know that
3:07
redundancy allows for that now the problem is that it's a dual chip system
3:12
and tesla in their presentation compared it to NVIDIA's xavier system which is a
3:18
single chip setup and NVIDIA didn't like this they said that the NVIDIA one was
3:23
was 21 tops but it's actually 30 tops according to NVIDIA's yes retaliatory
3:28
retaliatory blog post yeah clarifying NVIDIA came
3:32
out swinging what NVIDIA said that tesla should have done instead of comparing it
3:36
to the xavier which is you know 30 tops instead of 21 they
3:40
should have compared it to the drive agx
3:44
pegasus system which is a two chip system and it's capable of 320 tops
3:49
compared to tesla's 144. the problem is
3:53
that NVIDIA's system also has a TDP of
3:56
500 watts whereas tesla's new fsd chip
3:59
has 100 watts oh very low they didn't mention that on their blog they didn't
4:04
no they didn't want they were saying it would be more apples to apples comparison yeah tops wise or at least
4:09
die ones yeah yeah so one of the more bold claims that uh elon made during the
4:14
event was that tesla will launch an autonomous taxi service
4:19
and this will be up also by next year well obviously you need to have full
4:22
self-driving before you can have the full self-driving taxi service
4:26
there's no way that they're gonna launch the same day yeah there's gonna be a few
4:31
months at least and even a few months i mean i feel like
4:34
there's gonna be some troubleshooting if i own a tesla i can be at work like i am
4:39
right now and my car is just off somewhere gallivanting you can get to
4:43
work you can be like thanks a lot tesla i love you so much go give me some money
4:47
right when you get to the building you just toggle it on your app to say now you're part of the network yep and then
4:51
you can i guess see where it is on the map hopefully like somebody didn't call your
4:56
car from you know two cities over i wonder if you have to approve the riders
5:01
like when you're an uber driver yeah you see someone else like hey they've got a
5:04
good rating maybe you could have cameras in the in the cab like their
5:08
profile come up they're like you're not getting my car stinky
5:12
someone's like yeah i'm looking for a ride dude no no no no i also read that
5:17
uh tesla is gonna be taking a cut
5:20
even if you own the car and it's your car and it's out there right being a
5:24
taxi tesla gets 25 to 30 percent i mean
5:28
who cares if it's a 25 to 30 cut if you could make 30 000 a year that's what he
5:32
said with a model three you can make 30 000 a year well yeah or that's the
5:36
example you used model three presumably if uh there's it's gonna be like uber
5:40
where there's insurance or same with airbnb if someone gets in my car and gets blood all over the seat or
5:44
something like that right i would expect that that's gonna be covered by tesla
5:48
that's a good point i didn't know and i will pay for that right i will pay tesla
5:52
to take care of that stuff you wait i would love to pay tesla to take care of
5:56
that stuff for me oh that's what the cut is for that's what i mean i see yes
6:01
so musk says that this service will have 1 million cars on the road so that would
6:08
be all the cars that they've shipped so far well they hit 300 000 in 2018 so we
6:12
don't know exactly all the cars that they make over the next year you know
6:16
what they probably will have a million cars on the road by the time this launches really well if it takes them
6:21
five years to launch it by the time this launches so partially
6:25
because of the luxuries that are being afforded to you by the full self-driving
6:30
chip and partially because of the money you could make by renting out your car
6:34
as a robo taxi musk said during the stream that it's financially insane for
6:39
someone to buy anything other than a tesla right now
6:42
they will be like owning a horse in three years i mean fine if you're an a
6:47
horse but you should go into it with that expectation next year and it seems like three years
6:51
is the benchmark that he puts forward for going to mars full self driving
6:56
everything he wants to do meanwhile other experts are saying that
7:00
fully autonomous cars could be as much as 10 years away
7:04
so i mean here's a question from this should we fault him for
7:09
trying to push the industry forward in in such an intense way as he does should
7:13
we see these claims and and be like ah musk you don't know what you're talking
7:17
about or should we be like that man's a visionary i want to marry
7:21
him i would say a bit of both i think uh well do i think does he mean it when he
7:26
makes these dates does he actually believe he'll hit those targets i think
7:30
they're super optimistic i think if we lived in a world where everything goes
7:33
right and he doesn't hit any unforeseen engineering or regulatory snags then
7:37
maybe we could make those dates if everything lined up they could probably
7:40
make it but that just won't happen so yeah at this point investors and the
7:45
public large know to take those dates with a grain of salt bloomberg has this
7:49
very helpful graphic of all of the promises that elon musk has made in
7:53
regards to his various ventures and uh it's very interesting to see to go down
7:59
the list and see which ones were two years late three months late canceled 10
8:03
days late he has made deadlines before he can do it which ones any of that i
8:07
care about model 3 release date announcement he hit it
8:11
on schedule and i should say wait wait wait wait the announcement was on
8:15
schedule yep but i should say
8:18
but i should say that the full self-driving chip the fsd chip is on
8:22
schedule the announcement of that so uh he said six months ago that it would
8:27
come out today or yesterday and they hit that so if they can hit that
8:33
they can hit anything going to mars baby we're going to mars let's go
8:38
i think that should just be the end of the show let's go
8:47
wow we're here already oh this is mars i
8:50
can't breathe so deadlines aside though this is an exciting announcement i mean
8:56
it has a lower TDP and higher performance than it appears anything on
9:00
the market today correct me if i'm wrong people in the comments and also people
9:04
in the comments you can let us know would you rent out
9:08
your tesla vehicle to complete strangers to
9:12
use as a robo taxi would you would i lend out my car for someone else to use
9:17
my current car no because i don't want them driving it hard and ruining it but
9:21
they don't have to drive that car that's a good point so i think uh i think i
9:25
would i definitely would i yeah i'm buying one
9:28
yeah i'm gonna do that i feel like i would
9:32
do it once as a test and then that's stupid
9:39
you get one good person or one bad person that doesn't inform the future
9:44
i don't want to i'm not screwing around here all right people who aren't stupid
9:48
hit us up in the comments would you let strangers put their gross greasy or sexy
9:53
butts in your car seats we want to know and we also want to know what you think
9:57
about this format because it's new
10:01
and we don't know what it is as you might be able to tell
10:05
do you have an outro for this show nope love you so much subscribe i guess if
10:09
you want we don't know whether we're gonna make more of these we could do this twice a week we could or once or no
10:15
no times different people dennis anyone you want dennis
10:19
not