1 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:05,080 Oh, 2 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:11,840 that'll be $800. >> What? That can't be right. What do you 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:16,000 mean $800? >> Yep. That's probably how I felt for 4 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:20,880 anyone who's fired up the old PC part picker over the last couple of months. 5 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:25,199 But why, though? Well, part of it is the obvious one. I'm sure by now you must 6 00:00:23,119 --> 00:00:32,399 have seen the countless headlines about AI data centers and their insatiable 7 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:34,800 demands for energy and water and yes, 8 00:00:32,399 --> 00:00:39,600 computer memory. And they're using their fire hose of investment capital to buy 9 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:45,680 up so much memory that one of the big three memory makers just said, "Mother 10 00:00:42,160 --> 00:00:47,920 the big three, It's just big me." 11 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:53,120 and then completely sunsetted their entire consumer line outright in an 12 00:00:50,399 --> 00:00:57,520 effort to focus on this sky-high AI demand. Separately, SKH Highix announced 13 00:00:55,840 --> 00:01:03,840 that they are sold out of production all the way through 2026 and Samsung just 14 00:01:00,719 --> 00:01:06,240 increased their contract pricing by 15 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:10,080 100%. This means that if the AI bubble doesn't pop, this is going to get worse 16 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:14,479 before it gets better. >> But like, can't they just make more 17 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:19,040 memory chips or build more factories? Couldn't they just download more RAM? I 18 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:22,560 mean, yeah, they could do those things, but I hate to break it to you guys, 19 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:30,720 there's actually a lot of reasons for them not to do that. Just like I'm not 20 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:33,119 going to segue to our sponsor, Dbrand. 21 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:37,200 Dbrand is doing a giveaway. All you got to do is order something from their site 22 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:41,759 before the new year quickly and you will be entered to win a 23 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:46,399 Galaxy Z trifold, which currently isn't available in North America. Just visit i 24 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:51,759 amveryshort.com. Are you tired of boring screwdrivers? 25 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:54,560 Boom. Four new colors of the brand new 26 00:01:51,759 --> 00:02:00,240 LT transparent screwdriver. Plasma purple, cryo teal, molten orange, and 27 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:04,079 carbon black. They're see-through. They're awesome. And they're probably 28 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:07,680 going to sell out because for a limited time only, if you buy through YouTube 29 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:12,720 Shopping at the link in the video description, you will get 20% off your 30 00:02:10,239 --> 00:02:16,959 driver, but only until December 30th. Collect them all or maybe pair them with 31 00:02:14,640 --> 00:02:20,200 our brand new bid case and all over print hoodie. 32 00:02:26,879 --> 00:02:34,400 To explain why RAM costs a small nation's GDP now, we first need a quick 33 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:40,080 and dirty explainer for why AI models such as ChatGBT, Deep Seek, and Gemini 34 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:44,640 are so darn thirsty for it. LLMs or large language models are trained by 35 00:02:42,239 --> 00:02:49,920 feeding them buckets of media files, often text, images, video, or audio, or 36 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:54,160 depending on the model, sometimes a combination. And in the current ARMS 37 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:58,879 race, the highest quality models depend on parsing through the largest buckets 38 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:03,440 of training data. This training process can take anywhere from a few hours to 39 00:03:01,519 --> 00:03:08,400 months for the largest models. And that's where RAM comes in because RAM is 40 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:15,040 so much faster than an SSD with more capacity than the cache on board a CPU. 41 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:17,200 It's essential, crucial even for large 42 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:21,120 data centers to get as much as possible to speed up their AI development and 43 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:24,640 training efforts. It's also useful for inference, the stage where the user 44 00:03:22,879 --> 00:03:30,400 actually interacts with the trained model. For instance, if you have a long 45 00:03:27,519 --> 00:03:34,959 interaction with an AI model, more RAM helps to quickly reference the earlier 46 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:38,319 context of your conversation in order to appropriately respond to your next 47 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:44,560 prompt. If you want a deeper dive into this, I'm going to make sure I link some resources down below. But all you really 48 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:48,959 need for us to continue is more. It just needs more. And companies like OpenAI 49 00:03:46,879 --> 00:03:54,080 are generating billions of dollars in revenue, sorry, funding, which if they 50 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:58,879 want to stay on the bleeding edge, means they need as much memory as they can 51 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:04,480 get. But Elijah, isn't a ton of that memory being installed on AI GPUs or 52 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:10,879 even memory sticks that are for servers? Why is my Gamer Deluxe RGB 360 nocope 53 00:04:08,159 --> 00:04:16,079 kit also getting expensive? Here's the thing. While your favorite PC parts 54 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:21,280 retailer might carry RAM from dozens of different manufacturers, most of them 55 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:25,840 only assemble modules, the sticks that actually go into the slots. For the 56 00:04:23,280 --> 00:04:30,560 little black squares, the actual chips that contain the DRAM dies, there are 57 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:37,280 really only three serious players right now. SKHix, Samsung, and Micron. These 58 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:42,160 giants own the multi-billion dollar fabs that produce those chips and use them to 59 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:46,240 supply functionally every single industry on Earth. If it has a 60 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:51,280 processor, it probably needs a little bit of DRAM. So, yes, server sticks are 61 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:58,720 separate from your gaming sticks, but at the end of the day, whether you're a typical gamer or an AI company, you're 62 00:04:55,199 --> 00:05:01,120 both competing, or more like bidding, on 63 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:06,240 the finite quantity of these chips that can be produced by the big three. And I 64 00:05:03,919 --> 00:05:11,120 wonder who can afford to bid more, the individual who wants to play video games 65 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:16,000 or the multi-trillion dollar corporation with no revenue whose stock price will 66 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:20,560 cater if they don't buy more than anyone else in an effort to maintain their 67 00:05:17,759 --> 00:05:25,120 tenuous lead. So, if you take off your angry consumer 68 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:29,840 hat and put on your business monster hat for even a second, it's pretty easy to 69 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:34,479 understand why Micron decided to pivot their internal resources toward 70 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:39,600 fulfilling demand for their hungriest, wealthiest customers. Sucks cuz Crucial 71 00:05:37,280 --> 00:05:42,960 was a really good source of quality RAM and SSDs [music] 72 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:47,759 at a decent price. But it's really not the end of the world. Samsung has zero 73 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:51,600 presence in their DIY enthusiast space either, but that doesn't prevent module 74 00:05:49,759 --> 00:05:54,960 makers like Kingston or Corsair potentially pivoting and buying chips 75 00:05:53,440 --> 00:06:00,240 from them and building sticks for gamers. Speaking of Samsung, a rumor 76 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:05,600 recently started that supply was so constrained that they couldn't supply 77 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:08,319 their own smartphone business unit with 78 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:13,440 RAM chips. Samsung has come out and said that that isn't true. But for it to be 79 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:18,240 even a concern for the industry does raise a question. Why don't they just 80 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:20,479 make more? Well, for a couple reasons. 81 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:24,240 First, as I've alluded to before, the current fabs that are used to make 82 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:28,479 cuttingedge chips have a finite capacity. They already run around the 83 00:06:26,479 --> 00:06:32,560 clock with some of the world's most finely tuned supply management and 84 00:06:30,639 --> 00:06:36,720 highly trained engineers overseeing their operation. It's not as simple as 85 00:06:34,319 --> 00:06:42,160 just adding a production shift or turning the machine up to 200%. Those 86 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:47,680 are delicate operations and if something goes wrong in the middle of a batch, it 87 00:06:44,639 --> 00:06:49,440 could be weeks or even months to build 88 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:53,280 it again from scratch. So, they're not going to change things all willy-nilly. 89 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:58,800 And second is that even if they could boost production to meet demand, both 90 00:06:55,520 --> 00:07:00,400 SKH and Samsung have publicly stated 91 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:05,360 they don't plan to because they don't want to. See, this isn't the first time 92 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:09,440 DRAM demand has spiked. There was a big one back in the mid2010s when affordable 93 00:07:07,599 --> 00:07:13,440 cell phone plans went online in India as well as just a more general surge in 94 00:07:11,599 --> 00:07:18,000 demand for mobile computing devices. Anyway, in the past, DRAM manufacturers 95 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:22,720 have boosted production to meet these spikes in demand. Spikes that eventually 96 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:26,400 subsided, leading to an overstock. You see, the same factors that make it hard 97 00:07:24,479 --> 00:07:30,319 to ramp up production at a moment's notice also make it kind of challenging 98 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:34,080 to slow it down at a moment's notice. That can be good for consumers since 99 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:37,680 that means cheap gaming memory, but corporate fat cats kind of hate that, 100 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:42,000 especially when it leads to them selling memory at cost or sometimes even below 101 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:46,319 cost. The third reason is closely related to the first and second. [music] 102 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:51,759 Building a fabrication facility for anything silicon wafer production, 103 00:07:48,639 --> 00:07:54,479 whether it's CPUs, GPUs, or RAM, takes 104 00:07:51,759 --> 00:07:58,319 literal years. And these aren't the kind of projects where you can just throw 105 00:07:56,240 --> 00:08:02,000 twice as much money at them to complete them in half the time. On top of the 106 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:06,319 building itself, plans need to be in place for seismic activity mitigation, 107 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:11,039 water access and management, power staffing, logistics, good old-fashioned 108 00:08:08,639 --> 00:08:15,039 supply of the chemicals, gases, and high purity silicon wafers you'll need. And 109 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:18,160 even if one of these big boys does decide to shell out for another 110 00:08:16,479 --> 00:08:23,680 state-of-the-art fab, they would obviously want a return on their investment. So, they would only do it if 111 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:27,919 they expect these prices to stay high enough for them to operate it profitably 112 00:08:25,599 --> 00:08:31,680 for the next couple years. [music] And I'm going to let you in on a little open 113 00:08:29,599 --> 00:08:36,000 secret. That's not going to happen. The AI bubble is going to pop. Maybe not 114 00:08:34,159 --> 00:08:39,519 today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life. When it 115 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:44,080 happens, demand for memory isn't going to go away, just like demand for new 116 00:08:41,680 --> 00:08:48,480 smartphones didn't go away. But it won't stay at this level. And there is no 117 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:52,800 shovel manufacturer on Earth that is going to build a several billion dollar 118 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:58,000 factory that might not be needed by the time it's completed. So, it just seems 119 00:08:54,560 --> 00:08:59,839 that it's all the 120 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:05,120 where the is that coming from? >> From across the Pacific Ocean, Elijah, 121 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:08,240 where I've just learned that uh China 122 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:11,600 will save us from expensive memory. 123 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:13,200 Well, maybe. Regardless of your 124 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:18,720 political views on China and their technology, CXMT, a relatively new chip 125 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:23,839 fab that was born and raised in the 100 Acre Wood, has just announced that they 126 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:28,720 now have the ability to manufacture DDR5 chips. Great news for folks in China, 127 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:33,519 although maybe not as much for Americans, unless the US and China can 128 00:09:31,279 --> 00:09:38,560 sort out their little trade kurfuffle. With all that said, according to some 129 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:40,080 reports, CXMT is still about 2 to 3 130 00:09:38,560 --> 00:09:43,680 years from reaching the kind of manufacturing output that the big three 131 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:47,360 have. So, it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to make a dent in the 132 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:52,720 current demand anyway, which really sucks because, as I alluded to before, 133 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:57,360 this is probably going to get much worse before it gets better. [music] 134 00:09:54,720 --> 00:10:03,440 Remember that bit about how SKHEX has sold through their 2026 production? What 135 00:10:00,560 --> 00:10:08,800 that means is that even if the bubble pops, okay, all those chips are booked 136 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:14,079 and SKHENX is going to do their darnest to make sure that whoever booked them 137 00:10:11,279 --> 00:10:18,720 buys them. So if a company like Kingston were to place an order for chips, it's 138 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:23,360 going to be at those current market or bidded prices. And they're not going to 139 00:10:21,279 --> 00:10:28,160 sell them to you for the old price just because you're a poor consumer who just 140 00:10:25,839 --> 00:10:32,560 wants a decent price on memory. They're still gonna want to get the money back 141 00:10:30,079 --> 00:10:38,959 from paying more for those RAM chips. So, 142 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:41,440 years then back to you, Elijah. 143 00:10:38,959 --> 00:10:45,360 Which means not only are RAM dims going to be more expensive, but everything 144 00:10:43,279 --> 00:10:52,240 that needs memory will be. iPhones, Steam machines, smartwatches, cars, and 145 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:54,352 so so much more. [sighs] So, with all of 146 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:58,720 that said, what should you do as a [music] consumer? To be honest, I don't 147 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:02,560 know. Micron and OpenAI make for convenient scapegoats for lining the 148 00:11:00,959 --> 00:11:09,040 pockets of corporate billionaires and politicians and leaving us to struggle 149 00:11:05,519 --> 00:11:11,200 both now and when the AI bubble pops. 150 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:16,000 But the flip side is they are just some of the players. And as far as I can 151 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:20,160 tell, everyone is complicit. And if I'm mad at everyone, I don't know what to 152 00:11:17,839 --> 00:11:24,000 do. Boycott everyone that makes RAM. Then what? What videos will we make 153 00:11:21,839 --> 00:11:27,519 about products with no RAM in them? What video games are we going to play? I did 154 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:30,720 find out some good news though that I'm going to tell you. The Ebola outbreak 155 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:34,079 that is happening in the Congo has just been declared over. I mean, I didn't say 156 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:39,440 the good news was going to be about the RAM crisis, but hey, maybe this will be 157 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:44,720 a good segue to our sponsor, Private Internet Access. What's a VPN? I'm glad 158 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:49,040 you asked. Basically, a VPN hides your IP address and masks the location of 159 00:11:47,279 --> 00:11:52,640 your internet connection via an encrypted tunnel. 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