WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.000 Recently, I visited Valve to check out their upcoming Steam Machine, 00:00:04.000 --> 00:00:09.760 a gaming PC that has the potential to massively shake up the gaming console industry. 00:00:09.760 --> 00:00:13.680 They were shockingly open about the specs, features, and the design, 00:00:13.680 --> 00:00:18.960 but there is one piece of the puzzle that Valve is keeping close to their chest, the price. 00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:23.840 And that's a pretty important piece because when you look at the discussion online, 00:00:23.840 --> 00:00:29.040 people love this thing because they think it's going to be a $500 console killer, 00:00:29.040 --> 00:00:34.800 or they hate it because they think it's going to be yet another mid-spec pre-built gaming PC 00:00:34.800 --> 00:00:42.400 for a thousand US dollars. But which one is it? Valve won't tell us yet for some good reasons 00:00:42.400 --> 00:00:48.560 that we'll get to later, but what we do have is enough information and enough lines to read between 00:00:48.560 --> 00:00:54.560 that I believe we can make such an accurate guess that if we're off by more than 60 US dollars, 00:00:54.560 --> 00:00:59.440 I will eat an entire portal cake on the WAN Show. What is a portal cake? 00:00:59.440 --> 00:01:02.960 You don't remember the cake as a lie? An entire cake? 00:01:03.680 --> 00:01:08.560 That's true this time. Okay. Well, because I counted on you guys to help with the work, 00:01:09.280 --> 00:01:14.880 you are going to help me eat it. Gladly. We win as a team and we die as a team here. 00:01:15.600 --> 00:01:20.400 But I don't think that's going to happen because our theory is solid and it starts 00:01:20.400 --> 00:01:25.120 with the comparison system behind me. This approximation will both give us a sense for 00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:31.520 what a DIY steam machine would cost today, as well as give us a sense of how it might perform. 00:01:31.520 --> 00:01:38.480 Because Valve, they ain't no fools. They care a lot about the perceived value of the experience 00:01:38.480 --> 00:01:45.440 of using the steam machine, not just the raw specs. Let's start with their CPU then, or rather, 00:01:45.440 --> 00:01:51.360 not quite their CPU. See, the steam machine uses a semi-custom six core chip from AMD and, 00:01:51.360 --> 00:01:58.640 while we would have loved to use the near identical Ryzen 5 7540U, we don't have a custom 00:01:58.640 --> 00:02:05.120 motherboard to solder it to, so we're going to be stuck with the socketed desktop Ryzen 5 8400F. 00:02:05.120 --> 00:02:10.240 To get our performance estimate a little closer though, we're going to tweak its power and clock 00:02:10.240 --> 00:02:16.880 frequency to be closer to Valve's baby, about like so. Now we just need to save and quit. 00:02:18.400 --> 00:02:24.720 It's not working. Oh wait, I know what the problem is. We didn't configure our segue to our sponsor. 00:02:25.200 --> 00:02:41.200 Now we just put our equivalent CPU in there and immediately we're completely off the rails 00:02:41.200 --> 00:02:49.120 with the ASRock B650M-HM.2 Plus, a motherboard that, other than being a motherboard, is as 00:02:49.120 --> 00:02:55.040 different as possible from the one inside the steam machine. For starters, it's much larger, 00:02:55.040 --> 00:03:01.040 with robust power delivery and a plethora of expansion ports and slots that just aren't needed 00:03:01.040 --> 00:03:06.960 in the GameCube, which, other than a socketed SSD and system memory, uses soldered components 00:03:06.960 --> 00:03:13.040 to save on space, complexity and cost. Our board then is likely much more expensive than the one 00:03:13.040 --> 00:03:19.440 that Valve is using. However, the flip side is that creating a custom motherboard, that ain't free, 00:03:19.440 --> 00:03:26.320 and Valve is going to have to make up those costs somewhere. Perhaps by cheaping out on the RAM? 00:03:26.320 --> 00:03:32.480 Now we don't know for sure that Valve will select generic Jdex speed RAM like this 16 gig kit from 00:03:32.480 --> 00:03:38.720 Crucial, but what we do know is that they've chosen compact so-dim modules in order to save space, 00:03:38.720 --> 00:03:45.920 which could cost them a little bit extra. We also know that the 7540U is rated for a maximum speed 00:03:45.920 --> 00:03:53.120 of 5600Mbps, and unless Valve went more custom than they let on, that's probably about as fast 00:03:53.120 --> 00:03:59.600 as their semi-custom silicon will go. But that raises a big question. How custom did they go? 00:03:59.600 --> 00:04:05.840 What does semi-custom actually mean? As it turns out, it means pretty much off the shelf, 00:04:05.840 --> 00:04:13.200 but with some tuning to the firmware, power profile and drivers. And that choice tells us a fair bit 00:04:13.200 --> 00:04:20.000 actually. Think back to the recent news about Xbox reportedly cancelling their handheld. 00:04:20.000 --> 00:04:26.240 Allegedly, that was at least partially due to the fact that AMD wouldn't commit to a custom SOC 00:04:26.240 --> 00:04:32.480 unless Microsoft could guarantee at least 10 million units sold. So what I'm hearing is 00:04:32.480 --> 00:04:37.600 Valve is projecting enough sales to bother doing this project at all, and probably enough for AMD 00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:42.800 to give them a measurable price break, but not enough to sell 10 million steam machines. Because 00:04:42.800 --> 00:04:48.240 if that were the case, they might have chosen something more custom, a strategy that clearly 00:04:48.240 --> 00:04:54.080 contributed to the incredible price to performance ratio of their handheld console, the Steam Deck. 00:04:54.080 --> 00:04:59.040 There's any number of different ways to interpret this. I mean, Valve has been burned on Steam 00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:05.040 machines before. Are they just playing it safe this time? Or do they just think the market for a 00:05:05.040 --> 00:05:11.840 Steam living room console that's also a computer is relatively small? I mean, to you and me, 00:05:11.840 --> 00:05:15.920 10 million units is huge. I'd be stoked to sell 10 million units of anything, 00:05:15.920 --> 00:05:20.800 like the new transparent screwdriver from lttstore.com. But when we compare that number to 00:05:20.800 --> 00:05:28.320 console sales, yeah, it is tiny. Even infamous failures like the PS Vita and the Wii U sold 00:05:28.320 --> 00:05:34.320 significantly more than that. So to me, this reinforces the few hints that Valve has given 00:05:34.320 --> 00:05:41.520 with respect to pricing. What it tells us is that while Valve could look for every possible lever 00:05:41.520 --> 00:05:47.440 to drive down price, they just aren't that interested in betting big on upending the 00:05:47.440 --> 00:05:52.720 console market. It seems like they're more interested in replicating the Steam Deck's success 00:05:52.720 --> 00:05:59.120 by giving gamers more ways to play Steam games and putting a reference platform out there for 00:05:59.120 --> 00:06:07.440 other hardware manufacturers to chase. And who knows, maybe install Steam OS on? With that in 00:06:07.440 --> 00:06:12.160 mind then, it's not in Valve's best interest to monopolize the market. They want to drive 00:06:12.160 --> 00:06:18.640 competition in it, which unfortunately means they aren't likely to slim down their margins 00:06:18.640 --> 00:06:24.960 and hit a Christmas-listable $500 mainstream console price point. I actually asked Valve about 00:06:24.960 --> 00:06:35.600 that point blank, and while they didn't say no, they also didn't say no. Which is kind of a downer. 00:06:35.600 --> 00:06:42.160 And we've yet to complete our descent. As I install our Kingston NV3 with 500 gigs of storage, 00:06:42.160 --> 00:06:47.920 I can't help but be reminded of the rising costs of both the NAND Flash storage chips that are at 00:06:47.920 --> 00:06:55.680 the heart of every SSD and every type of memory right now. Like, both of them are more out of 00:06:55.680 --> 00:07:01.600 control than a pre-teen on Maury COVID. Catch me outside! And even though it's not intuitive, 00:07:01.600 --> 00:07:08.080 this is mostly due to the insatiable demands of AI factories and hyperscalers who are sucking up 00:07:08.080 --> 00:07:15.440 all the available production. And guess what? It gets worse. While US tariffs seem to be easing 00:07:15.440 --> 00:07:20.720 off a little, there is no denying that global trade friction and protectionism are hot trends 00:07:20.720 --> 00:07:25.920 right now. And in just the few months between now and broad availability of the steam machine, 00:07:26.480 --> 00:07:31.200 any given part of it could easily face cost increases due to these factors. 00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:35.760 Rounding out our test bench, we've got an AMD stock cooler, since we're going to be limiting 00:07:35.760 --> 00:07:42.960 our CPU to 30 watts anyway, and powering it this Seasonic Focus GX550. Not because the steam machine 00:07:42.960 --> 00:07:48.240 will have a 550 watt power supply, but because where the heck am I supposed to find a desktop 00:07:48.240 --> 00:07:53.520 power supply that is both high quality and also 300 watts? Now it's time to talk about what is 00:07:53.520 --> 00:08:00.560 arguably the most important piece of any gaming PC, the GPU. What we know is that the steam machine 00:08:00.560 --> 00:08:07.680 will have a semi-custom AMD RDNA3 GPU, we know it will consume the lion's share of the system's power, 00:08:07.680 --> 00:08:13.920 and we know that it will come with 8GB of dedicated GDDR6 VRAM. That actually lines up 00:08:13.920 --> 00:08:21.760 pretty closely with another product in AMD's lineup, the Radeon RX7600M. Sadly though, the M, 00:08:21.760 --> 00:08:26.560 once again, stands for mobile, so we couldn't find that GPU in a form factor that we could 00:08:26.560 --> 00:08:30.960 plug into a regular desktop. So once again, we need to look for the closest equivalent. 00:08:30.960 --> 00:08:37.360 This could be a problem. The most obvious choice would of course be the full-sized RX7600, right? 00:08:37.360 --> 00:08:41.040 I mean it's got the same dang numbers in the product name, so it must perform the dang same 00:08:41.040 --> 00:08:48.880 then, right? Wrong! It is much faster in most benchmarks. And if we want a GPU with similar 00:08:48.880 --> 00:08:55.760 performance, we end up with the RX6600, but that is a full-generation older, which means that it 00:08:55.760 --> 00:09:01.360 might not have the best support for AMD's latest features, and depending on the games we run and 00:09:01.360 --> 00:09:07.200 how much ray traced lighting they use, its performance profile is not going to be the same 00:09:07.200 --> 00:09:12.640 either. But what it does have is the same CU count and very similar boost clocks, 00:09:12.640 --> 00:09:19.280 and even the power rating is very similar, so I guess we go with this? Which brings us to pricing. 00:09:19.280 --> 00:09:24.800 David, where are we at? I would tell you that, but we're not done yet. You fell victim to one of 00:09:24.800 --> 00:09:30.240 the classic PC comparison blunders. You don't have a controller, but the Steam machine will come 00:09:30.240 --> 00:09:37.360 with a pretty fancy one. Oh. I chose the Cyclone 2 from GameSir as our stand-in. It's a high quality 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:42.640 wireless controller with TMR sticks that comes with its own charging dock, all for 56 bucks, 00:09:42.640 --> 00:09:47.760 but the box is missing its dongle, so instead we're going with the winner of the ultimate controller 00:09:47.760 --> 00:09:53.120 showdown from last year, the EZ SMX20. You love this controller. Okay, but that's still the same price 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:57.840 anyway. It's close enough that our calculations are still correct. Okay, so what are our calculations? 00:09:57.840 --> 00:10:01.680 Well, if we were to build this machine using the lowest historical pricing 00:10:02.400 --> 00:10:07.520 from the cheapest sources, which I would like to, and let's say we add 50 bucks for a case, 00:10:08.400 --> 00:10:12.080 we're looking at just over 600 US dollars. Oh, well, that's great news. I mean, 00:10:12.640 --> 00:10:19.520 it's SteamOS, so there's no Windows tax, so 599. I was not done. If we build it today in the 00:10:19.520 --> 00:10:24.000 current market conditions from the cheapest sources, we're looking at close to 900 dollars. 00:10:24.720 --> 00:10:31.520 Oh, but we don't have to buy these exact parts. No, if we're deal hunters and we don't mind giving 00:10:31.520 --> 00:10:35.760 up some of the bells and whistles and some of the name brands, it would save you about 100 bucks 00:10:35.760 --> 00:10:41.680 without giving up any performance. Okay, but that's retail pricing. That's got some margin built into 00:10:41.680 --> 00:10:50.080 it, so I don't think I'd say 799 either, or maybe I would. Chatting with some industry sources, 00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:57.040 it's estimated that there's as little as 10% net profit in PC parts, which would put our estimated 00:10:57.040 --> 00:11:05.440 cost between 700 and 750 dollars. With that said, Valve benefits from a direct-to-consumer model, 00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:11.600 meaning that they get to take both the brand and retailer margins. And as we already acknowledged, 00:11:11.600 --> 00:11:16.480 we did overspend on a number of our components, including the power supply, the motherboard, 00:11:16.480 --> 00:11:21.440 and the case, compared to what Valve would pay. With that said, in today's market, I still don't 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:26.960 think they're going to get costs under 600 to 650 dollars, meaning that the final question is, 00:11:26.960 --> 00:11:32.000 what kind of markup will Valve target on the steam machine? Without being a fly on the wall in their 00:11:32.000 --> 00:11:37.520 boardroom, it's impossible to say for sure. All that Valve would tell us is that they want their 00:11:37.520 --> 00:11:46.240 hardware business to be sustainable. But what does that mean? I think it means 699 US. If 00:11:46.480 --> 00:11:52.000 there's no major changes in the market. It's probably above Valve's cost today, and there'll 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:56.240 be some opportunity for them to improve their margins over the several-year lifespan of their 00:11:56.240 --> 00:12:02.640 device as their initial investment gets paid off, and hopefully RAM and SSD pricing returns to 00:12:02.640 --> 00:12:08.640 some kind of normalcy. And if we factor in nice-to-haves, like the dedicated antenna for up to 00:12:08.640 --> 00:12:13.680 four wireless steam controllers, not to mention the controller itself, the steam machine presents 00:12:13.680 --> 00:12:20.240 a compelling value at that price without completely undercutting the market. And, maybe this is the 00:12:20.240 --> 00:12:26.960 most important factor, it's kind of a funny number. I don't love this answer, and I'm sure I'm not the 00:12:26.960 --> 00:12:31.840 only one who's sitting here wishing that it was priced like a game console. I mean, who wouldn't 00:12:31.840 --> 00:12:39.040 want that affordable of a PC? But you see what I did just there? I just moved the goalpost. A big 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:45.120 part of the reason I want this thing to be affordable so bad is because it is a PC with all the 00:12:45.120 --> 00:12:51.440 benefits of a PC, like no-cost online play for most games, the ability to take advantage of steam 00:12:51.440 --> 00:12:56.960 sales, not to mention other gaming marketplace sales, and maybe most importantly, the ability to use 00:12:56.960 --> 00:13:04.080 it for all kinds of non-gaming applications. But it's exactly that PC-ness that makes the 00:13:04.080 --> 00:13:10.240 console pricing model just not work for Valve. It would take a matter of minutes for me to grab 00:13:10.240 --> 00:13:16.800 my brand new steam machine, install Windows and Epic Games Store on it, and then never give a penny 00:13:16.800 --> 00:13:22.880 of ongoing revenue to Valve. So, coming back to that word, sustainable. If they want their hardware 00:13:22.880 --> 00:13:28.080 business to make business sense, they can't risk pricing this thing so attractively that, 00:13:28.800 --> 00:13:34.240 say, a corporate office might buy 80,000 steam machines and kid out their entire workforce, 00:13:35.040 --> 00:13:42.000 all of whom will buy a total of goose egg games. Now, the steam deck was never in any real danger 00:13:42.000 --> 00:13:48.080 of that happening, which is why it could be priced as aggressively as it was. But the same can't be 00:13:48.080 --> 00:13:56.080 said for the steam machine. So, with that in mind, what are we getting for our $700 or at most $800 00:13:56.080 --> 00:14:02.880 if the market goes completely wackadoodle? Man, steam wants rocks. I know, right? Of course, 00:14:02.880 --> 00:14:07.040 that's not what we're evaluating today. Nope. Today, we're looking at the performance. So, 00:14:07.040 --> 00:14:12.160 we'll start up by firing up Hades 2. You're only getting like 200 to 300 frames, Linus. It's kind 00:14:12.160 --> 00:14:17.200 of embarrassing. Okay, well, we always knew that games like this were going to play just fine on 00:14:17.200 --> 00:14:21.680 the steam machine. What we really care about is how something more challenging is going to run. 00:14:21.680 --> 00:14:27.040 And our plan was to go with the game that seems poised to win Game of the Year, Expedition 33. 00:14:27.040 --> 00:14:33.120 But unfortunately, it's running in the steam deck profile with no way for us to reconfigure it on 00:14:33.120 --> 00:14:41.680 SteamOS right now. So, Cyberpunk, I guess. It's the crisis of the 2020s. This looks pretty good. 00:14:41.680 --> 00:14:47.680 Yeah, it looks pretty, but Cyberpunk at 4k medium details would look pretty. I can tell you as the 00:14:47.680 --> 00:14:56.720 person holding the controller, though, 45 FPS is not great for driving. But what's up with that? 00:14:56.720 --> 00:15:01.760 Valve said that out of the gate, the steam machine should be capable of running pretty much any game 00:15:01.760 --> 00:15:11.040 on Steam at 4k with FSR, about 60 FPS. Well, that's where there's clearly some tuning for them to do. 00:15:11.680 --> 00:15:16.320 Let's see if we can get to 60. Why don't we start with a low rather than a medium preset, 00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:22.400 and then let's change our FSR to Performance, which renders the game at an even lower resolution 00:15:22.400 --> 00:15:27.680 before upscaling. Oh, hey, that looks better. That is above 60. That sounds pretty good. 00:15:27.680 --> 00:15:32.480 Yeah, it still looks D's. There's a little bit of graininess. I mean, there's always a little bit 00:15:32.480 --> 00:15:36.080 of graininess inside of a point. Yeah, that's true. You crank it, it's just kind of like a gritty, 00:15:36.080 --> 00:15:45.040 grainy style. Yeah, that was on purpose, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Night City. This is very good. 00:15:46.160 --> 00:15:50.320 It's not the highest I've ever seen cyberpunk look, but if you have complaints about this, 00:15:50.320 --> 00:15:55.200 you're very picky. But who's to say that gamers shouldn't be discerning? While this looks fine 00:15:55.200 --> 00:16:00.640 in a vacuum, it's only as good as how it stacks up to the competition. How does it look next to, 00:16:00.640 --> 00:16:05.760 say, a PlayStation 5? What about second 4k display? Normally, we'd have to have multiple 00:16:05.760 --> 00:16:09.920 circuits to run two PCs, but the steam machine is going to be such a low powered thing that we can 00:16:09.920 --> 00:16:14.400 have two TVs, a PlayStation, and a computer all in one. That's actually a pretty good point. The 00:16:14.400 --> 00:16:19.360 expectations for running something in your living room are a little bit different than, you know, 00:16:19.360 --> 00:16:25.600 a dedicated battle station of a gaming PC. Being power efficient is definitely a plus. We're not 00:16:25.600 --> 00:16:29.280 in quite the same spot, but this is enough to give us an idea of how these systems will compare, 00:16:29.280 --> 00:16:35.120 both in terms of performance and in terms of image quality. It's funny. I think I'm actually 00:16:35.120 --> 00:16:40.240 running a touch sharper than you. Way sharper. I think I have better lighting. Your lighting. 00:16:40.240 --> 00:16:45.200 Details are better than mine. Is definitely better. But if I were to pick one, I actually think I would 00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:50.240 pick that. I was going to say, I'd probably pick the PlayStation. Interesting. You're in performance 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:54.720 mode right now, right? Yes. Which means you're getting about 60 FPS, which is about the same as 00:16:54.720 --> 00:17:00.800 what I'm getting. Either way, though, there's no clear winner. There's no obvious winner, which 00:17:00.800 --> 00:17:07.040 tells us that as long as they're reasonably within range of a PlayStation 5 on price, they're reasonably 00:17:07.040 --> 00:17:12.080 within range on performance. 100%. Here, do you want to try? Yeah. Just your inputs feel looser 00:17:12.080 --> 00:17:17.680 just because of the v-sync. Also, that's a better controller than this. I'm sorry. The joysticks, 00:17:17.680 --> 00:17:23.440 anyway. Yeah. The joysticks. The triggers on the DualSense are so cool. Yeah. Now that I'm on the 00:17:23.440 --> 00:17:28.640 PlayStation 5, my level of detail at a distance is, ah, man, no, I don't know. Actually, 00:17:29.440 --> 00:17:34.400 LOD might be similar. It's the lighting. Yeah. It's the lighting that makes a huge difference on 00:17:34.400 --> 00:17:39.440 the PlayStation. The nice thing about the Steam Deck is because it's a PC, you can tweak it to 00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:44.400 have the settings you want. That's true. And so, I find everyone's a little bit more sensitive to 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:49.760 different settings appearing in their graphics. And so, having control over that's really nice. 00:17:49.760 --> 00:17:54.160 Like, you might not worry that much about jaggies, so then you can put that headroom somewhere else. 00:17:54.160 --> 00:17:59.040 On PlayStation, it's either 60 or 30, baby. That's your choice. Yeah. Like, if you sit 00:17:59.040 --> 00:18:03.360 farther from your TV, you could run that at 1080p if you really wanted to. Totally. So, bottom line, 00:18:03.360 --> 00:18:09.520 Valve clearly has a couple of little details to polish up, but they have a few months to do it, 00:18:09.520 --> 00:18:13.760 and they've also made it very clear that they feel there is more juice to be squeezed from the 00:18:13.760 --> 00:18:19.120 hardware from a performance standpoint as well, with their custom drivers for AMD Radeon cards, 00:18:19.120 --> 00:18:24.720 not to mention deep integration with SteamOS, which we can't count on until we get the real 00:18:24.720 --> 00:18:30.320 Steam machine in our hands, not this Frankenstein's monster, but even based on what we've seen so 00:18:30.320 --> 00:18:37.200 far, at this performance level, at this price, with this level of flexibility, not to mention that 00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:43.920 it's really small and damn near dead silent, I think it looks like a pretty compelling value. 00:18:44.560 --> 00:18:48.800 And according to Valve, the market for this box might be bigger than you would think. 00:18:48.800 --> 00:18:54.400 They estimate that the Steam machine will be more powerful than what 70% of Steam users currently 00:18:54.400 --> 00:18:58.960 have. That doesn't necessarily translate to something that 70% of users would be interested 00:18:58.960 --> 00:19:05.120 in purchasing, but it does mean that it's almost certain that the Steam machine will find an audience, 00:19:05.120 --> 00:19:10.560 even if it does cost more than we estimate. I just hope that it doesn't cost too much, 00:19:10.560 --> 00:19:15.600 or if it does cost too much, I hope it doesn't succeed too much because I'd love for Valve to 00:19:15.680 --> 00:19:19.520 just say, oh, we didn't sell enough of these. You know what, screw it. Let's just upend the living 00:19:19.520 --> 00:19:24.160 room console, not to mention the entry level workstation space. Like, look at the way the Steam 00:19:24.160 --> 00:19:29.920 deck seems to have lit a fire under Nintendo's lethargic butt. I love Valve as a disrupter, 00:19:29.920 --> 00:19:34.960 and I also love our sponsor. If you guys want more Steam machine content, get subscribed, 00:19:34.960 --> 00:19:39.360 as we have more on the way, but in the meantime, you should check out either of our recent Valve 00:19:39.360 --> 00:19:44.560 hardware coverage, or hey, maybe have about the time we deep dived into the state of SteamOS on 00:19:44.560 --> 00:19:49.920 non-Valve hardware. SteamOS is likely to end up far more important than the Steam deck and the Steam 00:19:49.920 --> 00:19:52.000 machine combined.