1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,920 For decades, we've joked, "Is this the 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:10,639 year of the Linux desktop?" And to a lesser degree, is Apple finally sick of 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:15,200 selling iPods with cellular modems and ready to take a bite out of Microsoft's 4 00:00:12,639 --> 00:00:19,760 desktop market share. But it's always been just that, a joke. Even within the 5 00:00:18,080 --> 00:00:26,320 niche communities that embrace Windows alternatives, the year of is less of an 6 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:30,640 optimistic projection of future success and more of a masterpiece of 7 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:35,920 self-deprecating observational humor that we've spent so long debating the 8 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:40,640 timeline for this grand event that even the deepest believers are no longer sure 9 00:00:38,079 --> 00:00:45,120 that it's ever going to happen. Because in spite of every monumental improvement 10 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:51,039 in the competition, not to mention in spite of every Microsoft stumble, 11 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:54,960 Windows remains as dominant as ever. Or 12 00:00:51,039 --> 00:00:56,800 does it? I say it doesn't. And not only 13 00:00:54,960 --> 00:01:00,960 are the cracks appearing, but they're starting to widen in a way that could 14 00:00:59,039 --> 00:01:06,479 put the critical mass that drives widespread adoption just around the 15 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:12,080 corner. So, it might not be the year of the Linux desktop, but seeing one 16 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:16,080 colossal failure after another, it's starting to feel like the year of 17 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:21,759 Windows humiliation. And I think that Microsoft knows it. My proof, Microsoft 18 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:26,799 themselves, they're not stupid. They see all the same signs that I do. And after 19 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:30,640 years of Windows and crapification, they finally dropped the facade and published 20 00:01:28,799 --> 00:01:36,479 an open letter to the community promising to do better this time. Please 21 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:38,479 take me back. So, what prompted that? 22 00:01:36,479 --> 00:01:43,680 Can they turn the ship around or is this all just too little too late? Let's talk 23 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:49,200 about what's going on right now and talk about how uncharacteristically seriously 24 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:54,000 Microsoft is treating it. And let's talk about our sponsor, 25 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:58,560 Vessie. It's the keep your feet dry easy slip-on. No water gets inside. Supremely 26 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:04,320 breathable. We're seriously not joking about the no water thing. Functionable, 27 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:07,920 fashionable footwear. Vessie, off water 28 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:10,959 >> storms are coming. A ship storm that is. 29 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:14,560 From April 24th to May 7th, get free 30 00:02:10,959 --> 00:02:17,680 shipping sitewide on ltstore.com on any 31 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:22,000 order over $150 in the US and Canada or 32 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:24,080 $225 worldwide. No codes, no fuss, just 33 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:28,000 free shipping. And to help you hit that threshold, we have got some killer 34 00:02:25,920 --> 00:02:31,440 deals. And if you want an even lower threshold, you can sign up for our 35 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:35,040 supporter plus tier on Floatplane for an even better offer. We'll have that 36 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:40,000 linked down below. I want to get this out there before we go any further. As a 37 00:02:37,519 --> 00:02:45,519 lifelong user, I certainly have my share of gripes with Windows, but I'm also no 38 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:47,760 hater and for every complaint is also a 39 00:02:45,519 --> 00:02:52,160 counterpoint. I mean, sure, search is a giant swimming pool full of dog water, 40 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:56,319 but how about firing up compatibility mode and running software from my 41 00:02:53,440 --> 00:03:01,120 childhood? That's outstanding. So, I'm not rooting for Windows to lose. I'm 42 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:06,400 just observing that if nothing changes, that could be an inevitable outcome. And 43 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:11,599 before you say that's crazy, history is kind of on my side here. Once upon a 44 00:03:08,959 --> 00:03:18,000 time, Windows web servers were a thing. Now, the most recent data from W3X has 45 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:19,920 it at less than 10%. And that's just one 46 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:24,640 of the platform wars that Microsoft has lost over the years. According to the 47 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:31,040 New York Times, in 2007, Microsoft was estimated to have over 60% market share 48 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:34,080 in pocket PCs. Now, that's a big fat 49 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:36,560 zero. But that was the past. Let's talk 50 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:40,879 about the now. Going across the major Windows user groups, starting with 51 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:45,920 gamers. I know that not everyone plays games, but gamers are a loud and 52 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:51,840 therefore disproportionately important demographic because a loud audience can 53 00:03:48,319 --> 00:03:54,560 work both in your favor and against it. 54 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:59,599 On the surface, there's not a ton of danger signs here. Thanks to its broad 55 00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:04,159 support for most titles, its often lower prices, and its unparalleled access to 56 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:08,480 modding tools that enhance the gaming experience, learning to navigate the ins 57 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:13,439 and outs of Windows has become something of a right of passage for young PC 58 00:04:10,959 --> 00:04:17,759 gamers to feed their habit. And once they're on the Windows platform, many 59 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:23,280 gamers end up stuck due to kernel level antiche and copy protection systems that 60 00:04:20,639 --> 00:04:29,600 either only work on Windows or that developers choose to only implement on 61 00:04:25,919 --> 00:04:31,600 Windows. And yet gamers are leaving 62 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:36,960 Windows in numbers that we have never seen before. Tom's Hardware observed 63 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:42,880 last year that while Linux market share was languishing for years in the 1% 64 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:45,840 range, 2022 marked a significant turning 65 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:52,720 point with Linux then surpassing 2% sometime in 2024 and 3% in 2025. 66 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:57,759 What happened to build this momentum? Well, I'll tell you. After the 67 00:04:55,680 --> 00:05:03,680 catastrophic launch of the original Steam OS, a Linux- based Windows 68 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:06,560 competitor back in 2015, Valve spent 69 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:10,880 just about the next 10 years quietly funding the development of the Proton 70 00:05:08,639 --> 00:05:17,039 compatibility layer, a software that translates Windows Direct 3D API calls 71 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:22,160 over to Vulcan, an openstandard graphics API that runs crossplatform, including 72 00:05:19,759 --> 00:05:27,360 on Linux. This development finally came to light alongside the Steam Deck, a 73 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:32,479 Linux-based handheld gaming PC running Steam OS 3.0. To say that the gaming 74 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:37,199 world was blown away would be a gross understatement. For the first time, any 75 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:43,520 random normie could quite literally pick up a Linux gaming PC, find a Windows 76 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:45,840 game, and press play. It didn't work all 77 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:50,479 the time, but the intrepid open source gaming community, now with deep pocketed 78 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:54,000 corporate backing, saw an opportunity and has been hard at work taking 79 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:57,520 everything that's great about Steam OS and the Steam Deck and making it 80 00:05:55,759 --> 00:06:02,800 accessible across a wider range of hardware through gamerfriendly Linux 81 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:04,479 distros like Basite and Catchio OS. 82 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:08,800 Meanwhile, Microsoft has been doing seemingly everything in its power to 83 00:06:06,319 --> 00:06:14,880 turn Windows into a giant ad for One Drive, Xbox Game Pass, and Edge Browser. 84 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:19,039 Ads that I can't simply dismiss and then never see again. I think this Reddit 85 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:25,280 user put it better than I ever could. Stop asking me. The answer is the same 86 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:26,800 as last time. So, while Valve is only 87 00:06:25,280 --> 00:06:30,800 estimated to have sold somewhere in the neighborhood of about 4 million Steam 88 00:06:28,639 --> 00:06:35,199 Decks, the groundwork that they laid has resulted in an explosion of Linux usage 89 00:06:33,199 --> 00:06:40,479 amongst gamers with the latest Steam survey putting Linux at about 5% market 90 00:06:37,759 --> 00:06:44,000 share for the first time in history. Now, there does appear to be some 91 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:50,000 sampling irregularities that led to such a sudden jump, but the overall trend is 92 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:51,680 still crystal clear. 93 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:54,639 Breaking news, editor. No idea where you're going to put this, but Framework 94 00:06:53,199 --> 00:07:01,880 just announced that for their new Framework 13 Pro laptop, the Ubuntu 95 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,880 version is out selling Windows. 96 00:07:02,319 --> 00:07:10,080 Windows use is eroding and Linux use is growing and Microsoft is clearly taking 97 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:14,800 drastic measures to stop the bleeding. The most obvious example has got to be 98 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:18,560 the new Xbox fullcreen experience or Xbox mode that Microsoft developed to 99 00:07:17,039 --> 00:07:23,280 provide a more seamless gaming experience on handheld PCs like the ROG 100 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:28,800 Xbox Ally X that they co-branded alongside ASUS in late 2025. It pairs 101 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:33,520 down system resource usage, particularly system memory significantly, and makes 102 00:07:31,599 --> 00:07:39,440 the whole operating system much easier to navigate with a controller. And it's 103 00:07:36,319 --> 00:07:42,160 coming to a desktop near you. This is 104 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:48,240 very exciting stuff, but it also raises a big question. Why now? Microsoft has 105 00:07:45,599 --> 00:07:52,080 owned the Xbox brand for nearly 25 years. At any point, they could have 106 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:55,919 taken what they learned there and then stripped the Croft out of Windows to 107 00:07:53,840 --> 00:08:01,280 provide a better experience. But they chose not to until they were forced into 108 00:07:58,879 --> 00:08:05,680 action. To be clear, I'm not complaining. Progress is progress. And 109 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:10,879 this is a perfect example of why I don't fanboy for any one side. and I only 110 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:15,759 fanboy for competition. But on that subject, let's talk about user group 111 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:20,240 number two, where Microsoft still isn't getting much competition, and that's in 112 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:24,000 pre-built systems. All right, give me a tier one PC builder. 113 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:29,280 >> Find me a Linux system on their website. To their credit, they do have them, or 114 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:31,680 they have one anyway. But tell me this, 115 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:36,080 why is it buried three pages deep in the options for this tower? And why is it 116 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:41,200 priced so poorly compared to these deeply discounted Windows machines? I 117 00:08:38,399 --> 00:08:46,480 thought Windows costs extra. Well, it does, except that Microsoft has 118 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:50,240 powerful marketing programs that strongly incentivize their partners to 119 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:55,519 position their products more prominently. Anti-competitive, 120 00:08:53,120 --> 00:09:00,640 maybe. I'm not an antitrust lawyer, though. Is it effective, though? 121 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:04,720 Absolutely. So, we're probably not going to see much erosion on that side unless 122 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:11,120 something dramatically changes. HEY, WHOA, WHOA. HEY, what's going on here? 123 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:14,160 What's going on? Is the sleeping giant 124 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:16,080 has awakened. While Apple's Mac product 125 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:20,080 line has been treated like something of a red-headed stepchild ever since the 126 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:25,760 iPhone completely took over Apple's balance sheet, their share has been 127 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:30,640 slowly but surely growing and in my opinion is on the verge of a major 128 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:35,279 breakout. Apple silicon was one of the keys giving Certino complete control 129 00:09:33,279 --> 00:09:40,080 over their performance profile, supply chain, and margins. And while they were 130 00:09:37,839 --> 00:09:45,519 content to keep things mostly status quo for a few years, the launch of the M4 131 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:50,720 Mac Mini was a huge turning point in my eyes. Suddenly, the same company that 132 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:56,480 used to sell $700 wheels for their desktops had a great generalpurpose 133 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:58,320 desktop for less. Then they followed 134 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:03,839 that up more recently with the MacBook Neo, an incredible $600 laptop using 135 00:10:01,680 --> 00:10:09,279 their last gen phone chip whose success has surprised even Apple. And did I 136 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:14,560 mention it's only $500 for students in schools? With Apple suddenly 137 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:18,720 aggressively pursuing volume while the rest of the industry is reeling from 138 00:10:16,399 --> 00:10:22,880 pricing shocks due to DRAM and storage shortages. I mean, no amount of 139 00:10:20,959 --> 00:10:26,880 Microsoft writing checks to Dell or Lenovo is going to suppress that 140 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:30,160 competition for mainstream consumers. Their sales partners are going to do 141 00:10:28,399 --> 00:10:34,399 what they do best and secure large corporate deals for fleet machines, but 142 00:10:32,399 --> 00:10:38,480 it's going to get harder. And already I'm seeing feedback that the MacBook Neo 143 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:44,640 has changed the competitive landscape for good in a way that I'm sorry, but 144 00:10:41,839 --> 00:10:48,640 Snapdragon Windows ARM laptops just aren't going to be enough to counter. 145 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:54,160 And all of this is against a backdrop of Microsoft's traditional customers being 146 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:58,160 desperately ready for change. I've talked about how Linux is chipping away 147 00:10:55,760 --> 00:11:03,519 at mind share among gaming enthusiasts, but both Mac and Linux are now strongly 148 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:08,720 positioned for other types of enthusiasts, AI enthusiasts, software 149 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:14,480 development enthusiasts, freedom enthusiasts, privacy enthusiasts, value 150 00:11:11,839 --> 00:11:20,240 enthusiasts. I mean, these are just some of the passionate user bases that have 151 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:22,880 become so disenfranchised to the point 152 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:29,040 where they will openly admit to only using Windows because I have to. To be 153 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:33,360 clear, Microsoft is doing stuff on top of the Xbox stuff I mentioned. They've 154 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:38,000 committed to pulling unnecessary copilot AI cruff out of tools like snipping tool 155 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:42,079 and finally fixing search, not to mention allowing the taskbar to be 156 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:47,680 repositioned. But all of these things raise the same question I asked before. 157 00:11:44,959 --> 00:11:53,920 Why did this course correction take so bloody long? It is better late than 158 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:56,160 never. Even as I was writing this video 159 00:11:53,920 --> 00:12:01,519 from my MacBook Neo, I found myself tempted by Microsoft's efforts to win me 160 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:04,160 back. And they have enormous inertia. So 161 00:12:01,519 --> 00:12:08,639 the year of macOS or the Linux desktop, it's probably not this year and probably 162 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:13,040 isn't next year either. But staying afloat the way they have isn't a given. 163 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:18,079 Just because the Titanic didn't sink in 30 seconds doesn't mean that it didn't 164 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:23,279 eventually sink. And Microsoft's iceberg is clearly on the horizon. But only time 165 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:28,000 is going to tell if they can avoid it. What I know that they can't avoid is 166 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:32,560 this stylish new color of polo from ltstore.com. This is part of our basics 167 00:12:30,079 --> 00:12:40,720 collection. It's great. 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Cool. My foot's dry. 180 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:35,680 Thanks. I'm going to wear Vessie shoes for the rest of my life. Another shoe 181 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:39,040 problem solved with Vessie. Get 15% off your Weekend Neo or Stormbburst at 182 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:45,120 vessie.com/lt with free shipping, one-year warranty, 183 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:47,120 and 30-day hassle-free returns. 184 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:52,399 If you guys enjoyed this video, why not check out the one we did on the 185 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:53,440 announcement of the ROG Xbox XLI XROG, 186 00:13:52,399 --> 00:13:56,880 uh, whatever. We showed the new interface. It's legitimately pretty