1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:08,000
imagine if the world's biggest manufacturer of chips just shut down and

2
00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:10,280
I'm not talking Fredo I mean tsmc the

3
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:14,799
massive company based out of Taiwan that produces around 90% of the world's

4
00:00:12,799 --> 00:00:19,160
leading Edge computer chips recently earthquakes That Shook Taiwan as well as

5
00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:24,240
tensions with neighboring China have led people around the world to be concerned

6
00:00:21,039 --> 00:00:27,560
about what would happen if tsmc suddenly

7
00:00:24,240 --> 00:00:29,400
couldn't make chips anymore so exactly

8
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:33,239
how would the planet fair with the sudden loss of one of its most important

9
00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:36,640
companies before we answer we'd like to thank our friend Dr Ian cutus for

10
00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:40,160
helping us out with this video when you're done watching go check out his

11
00:00:38,160 --> 00:00:44,280
website more than more and his YouTube channel tech tech potato first let's

12
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:48,840
talk about natural disasters Taiwan is located squarely within the infamous

13
00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:53,239
Pacific Ring of Fire meaning earthquakes are a concern tsmc along with other Fabs

14
00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:57,120
is generally quite well protected against vibrations that can disturb the

15
00:00:54,920 --> 00:01:00,920
delicate Machinery needed to produce chips between anchors that dampen the

16
00:00:59,359 --> 00:01:05,439
effects of Earth earthquakes and floating piles that allow buildings to

17
00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:10,520
be supported by more stable soil deep underground tsmc can and does get back

18
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:14,799
up and running even after significant earthquakes within a matter of hours

19
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:19,680
good thing too considering 1 hour of downtime could cost the company millions

20
00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:24,720
of dollars but earthquakes are one thing human caused problems like War are

21
00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:28,799
another so let's say tsmc was wiped out due to some kind of military

22
00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:33,399
confrontation what then well do you remember the graphics card shortage from

23
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:35,200
a few years back it would be like that

24
00:01:33,399 --> 00:01:39,399
except much worse a big part of the reason for this is not just because tsmc

25
00:01:37,320 --> 00:01:43,360
makes so many chips but because they produce tons of Leading Edge chips

26
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:47,159
basically these are chips that have smaller transistors than other chips

27
00:01:45,079 --> 00:01:52,159
allowing them to be higher performance and much more power efficient think

28
00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:56,119
current gen CPUs and computers or the S so's that power Flagship smartphones but

29
00:01:54,520 --> 00:02:01,520
it isn't just higher end chips that would suffer a big time Supply shortage

30
00:01:58,399 --> 00:02:04,680
of the roughly 12 million 12in Wafers

31
00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:07,439
that tsmc produces yearly about 95

32
00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:11,280
million of those are on older nodes for cheaper chips for applications that

33
00:02:09,319 --> 00:02:17,000
don't need the highest performance in a smartphone for example about 70% of the

34
00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:19,440
Silicon inside is on these older nodes

35
00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:24,560
this means there would be shortages of everything resulting not only in higher

36
00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:29,040
prices say on cars for example but also a Ras to the bottom what we mean is

37
00:02:26,879 --> 00:02:33,000
you'd start seeing PCS and phones being made with the fewest number of chips

38
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:37,640
possible meaning more basic functionality lower resolutions and

39
00:02:34,879 --> 00:02:42,040
refresh rates older versions of Wi-Fi and less responsive performance in

40
00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:45,120
general from most devices on the market would likely be the order of the day if

41
00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:49,400
you don't want to deal with this extreme version of paying more for Less you'd

42
00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:53,920
have to hope your current devices are high-end enough to last until tsmc could

43
00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:58,000
get back up and running but how would the world try to recover in the meantime

44
00:02:56,280 --> 00:03:01,400
we'll tell you right after we thank ODU for sponsoring today's video to car for

45
00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:05,280
your your own space in the digital world without a website is madness with ODU

46
00:03:03,879 --> 00:03:09,680
you can design and get your very own website up and running in no time at all

47
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:13,560
thanks to their intuitive codefree drag and drop elements and if you find

48
00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:18,519
yourself experiencing some writer block odu's AI copywriter is there to help you

49
00:03:15,799 --> 00:03:22,239
out oh and did we mention that it's free that's right and you can get unlimited

50
00:03:20,319 --> 00:03:25,879
hosting and a fully paid custom Dona name for the first year visit the link

51
00:03:24,519 --> 00:03:30,959
below and start building your very own website with Odo of course if tsmc went

52
00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:34,840
away there are are other chip Fabs that would try to fill the void but they

53
00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:39,000
don't have the capacity that tsmc does especially for Leading Edge Products

54
00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:43,560
much more strain would be put on firms like Intel Global foundaries and lesser

55
00:03:41,519 --> 00:03:47,840
known companies like Tower semiconductor along with other companies like Tokyo

56
00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:52,439
electron and ASM which make equipment important for chipm that they then sell

57
00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:55,560
to Fabs all this pressure means that there wouldn't be a whole lot of

58
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:58,799
innovation for a while you know how Intel does that thing where every year

59
00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:02,959
they talk about how their upcoming chip lineup is faster consumes less power

60
00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:07,079
well instead of that all their efforts would be going into just cranking out as

61
00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:10,879
many chips as possible on existing process nodes so it would be very

62
00:04:08,799 --> 00:04:15,360
difficult to upgrade even if you had the cash the problem would be exacerbated

63
00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:19,440
even further as some companies AMD being one of them are very reliant on tsmc to

64
00:04:17,840 --> 00:04:24,240
produce their chips to the point where their designs assume they'll have access

65
00:04:22,079 --> 00:04:28,080
to tsmc manufacturing this means upcoming designs would instead get

66
00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:32,400
abandoned for the time being and AMD would have to try and adapt anything

67
00:04:30,479 --> 00:04:37,080
still in development for foundries like Samsung or even Intel ironic if you know

68
00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:41,840
Computing history this kind of situation would probably last for 6 years or so

69
00:04:39,639 --> 00:04:46,800
until tsmc could be rebuilt and in the meantime there would be obvious

70
00:04:43,840 --> 00:04:50,880
geopolitical consequences as tsmc is a crucial source of chips for NATO member

71
00:04:48,919 --> 00:04:54,479
states and NATO alligned countries maintaining a sufficient chip Supply

72
00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:58,479
would suddenly become a major national security issue for those Nations meaning

73
00:04:56,479 --> 00:05:03,520
you might see nationalization or at least closer government Direction Over

74
00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:06,720
chip Fabs within some country's borders of course the assumption is that the

75
00:05:04,919 --> 00:05:11,120
most likely way this would happen is due to a Chinese attack on Taiwan but

76
00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:15,560
there's a high possibility that such an attack would result in the most costly

77
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:19,240
war in human history and that China would be cut off from nearly all Global

78
00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:24,280
Financial markets as a result so do we really have to worry about tsmc going up

79
00:05:21,319 --> 00:05:28,400
in Flames tomorrow most likely not but no one would blame you if you squirreled

80
00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:32,240
away a latest gen high performance Ultra Book fresh in the Box to go in your

81
00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:34,840
doomsday stockpile of canned lima beans thanks for watching guys if you like

82
00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:42,280
this video you might like the one where we covered this dude who built his own

83
00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:42,280
graphics card at home very cool